Prediction for Broad Street (tomorrow)

Well it's already May and that means Broad Street is tomorrow. In January when I thought I wasn't going to be running at all until now I would not have ever had serious aspirations about racing this cycle. I'm going to offer a prediction for the race tomorrow and break down why I think what I think.

Prediction/realistically hopeful result: Under 50:00 for 10 miles. The course is net downhill by about 150' and basically a straight line, and it looks like there will be a crosswind/slight tailwind. Coupled with ideal weather, this spells out fast times and the field is always good.

Reasons why I will run under 50: Workouts have been good since I really got back into training. I have been running about 80 mpw with two workouts a week targeted for this distance and  pace. Compared with my training from last fall prior to running 1:05, the workouts are very similar and I even managed to run faster for my 4 x 2 miles this spring than I did last fall, feeling much stronger. The course and potential for tailwind and good weather are also in my favor. I ran an honest 5 miler that in hindsight was not quite all out last weekend and ran 25:12, so on a flat/net down hill course I hope to be able to double that.

Reasons why I won't run under 50: Working and running is hard. 80 mpw is about 25 mpw less than I had been doing prior to a full time job, so while workouts have been good, the easy supportive mileage has been much less. This is a big question mark to me; I'm not sure how much of a training impact easy running has, besides supporting workouts, and as I said they have been good. One other thing that it may affect is the relative strength of the taper. Another factor that I don't fully understand is how much a full time job affects racing performance. It definitely affects nervous energy, though I cannot determine how much . Sleep has been OK, and with the race on a Sunday it gives me an extra day to sit around and veg out which I much prefer to racing on Saturday.

Overall I think I will be right around 50 minutes, give or take with the weather. The state record for 10 miles is 49:40 which I think is on the optimistic edge of realistic, give how training has been going. I don't know if this course can count for that, but it is a good benchmark to shoot for nonetheless.